Central Texas may barely dodge flooding, while receiving beneficial rain

The combination of the passage of an upper trough, a slow moving front, and increased moisture arriving from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific is expected to produce heavy rain through the week. The main area of concern will be across the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau where an additional 4-6 inches, with isolated totals up to 8 inches of rain are possible. The Hill Country and I- 35 corridor could see 1 to 3 inches of rain. Lesser amounts are expected farther east.
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From National Weather Service (note most of the flood threat information includes areas outside of the KXAN viewing area):
  • New rain amounts from this afternoon through Thursday
    • 4 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inches
  • Event Total amounts from Monday through Thursday should equate to 4-6 with isolated pockets of 10-12 inches as rain continues to accumulate
  • Portions of Dimmit and Zavala have already received 6-7.5 inches with Val Verde in the 2-3 inch range. Much of the heavier totals (so far) have remained in Mexico.

Headlines:

Areas of localized heavy rainfall leading to flash and river flooding will be possible overnight through Thursday afternoon with the highest likelihood near the Rio Grande Plains into the southern Edwards Plateau, along and west of U.S. Highway 83.

It must be stressed that this will be a multi-round event and any time-frame through Thursday could have a local flash flooding risk due to repeating heavy rain cells.

A Flash Flood watch remains in effect through 7pm Thursday for portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau County areas.

Area of Concern:

Rio Grande Plains into the Southern Edwards Plateau and possibly into portions of the western Hill County.

Threats & Impacts:

Rainfall:  4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts of 8 inches in the area of concern. There is a small likelihood that even highly localized higher amounts could be possible.

Flooding Impacts: Several locations may experience minor to moderate flooding with flood waters capable of causing rivers and tributaries to become swollen and over-spill their banks. Small streams, creeks and ditches will overflow with some low lying structures flooded. Flood waters may prompt several evacuations and road closures, especially in normally flood-prone areas.

Timing and Overview:

A dissipated tropical storm from the Pacific combining with a slow-moving cold front and weak disturbance through mid-week will support heavy rainfall over multiple time periods through Thursday. Given the rocky soil in the expected highest rainfall total location, river and flash flooding is of particular concern.

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