The Climate Prediction Center is releasing its three-month outlook for temperatures and precipitation for October to December, 2017.
It comes in the wake of the announcement of a La Niña Watch last week: we have up to a 60% chance of La Niña development either this fall or winter. In Central Texas, warmer and drier than normal conditions are most prevalent in the winter during La Niña years. Even during 2016’s weak La Niña, we had our warmest winter ever.
The news this time around is unsurprising: we are again expected to have a warmer and drier than normal winter.
TEMPERATURES: Over 95% of the U.S. is expected to be warmer than usual during October, November and December this year. The only exceptions are parts of North Dakota, Montana and Alaska. In fact, Central Texas is predicted to be warmer than normal all the way through the start of 2019.
PRECIPITATION: Half of the Lone Star state — including Central Texas — is predicted to be drier than normal during October, November and December. In fact, Central Texas remains in drier than normal conditions for every three month outlook through March of 2018. We could potentially see normal rainfall during the spring. Through the end of 2018, though, no three month outlook ever puts Central Texas in wetter than normal conditions.