NWS update on weekend storm outlook

Headline:

…Severe Storms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday Afternoon through Sunday …

Area of Concern:

Saturday afternoon and early evening: Along and north of I-10 (including Austin and San Antonio).

Overnight Saturday through Sunday: All of South Central Texas with the threat ending from west to east.
Threats & Impacts:

Winds: Straight-line wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Hail: Hail up to 2 inches in diameter

Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes possible.

Rainfall: 1 to 2 inches with isolated totals of 3+ inches (greatest totals further northeast).

Timing and Overview:

A deep upper level disturbance will help cause two distinct periods of possible severe weather this weekend. The first will begin on Saturday afternoon as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop mainly along and north of I-10 in the Hill Country and I-35 corridor (including Austin and San Antonio). There is a marginal risk of strong to severe thunderstorms that would be capable of causing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated brief tornado. Rainfall totals on Saturday should generally remain below a half of an inch, with locally heavy downpours up to an inch possible.

A more widespread threat of severe thunderstorms across all of South Central Texas will begin as early as late Saturday night as strong to severe thunderstorms develop over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau and move east. These storms may develop into a line associated with the cold front as it moves through the region from west to east on Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats, but a few tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding will be possible particularly along and east of I-35 where isolated to scattered storms may develop ahead of the frontal line of storms. The severe and heavy rainfall threat will end from west to east, clearing the area by Sunday evening with only light to moderate showers expected with possibly minor river flooding ongoing.

Confidence:

Timing: Moderate

Severe Weather Potential: Moderate to High

Rainfall and Flood Threat: Low to Moderate

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