Severe storm risk tonight, early Wednesday morning

Severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late this afternoon over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Northern Hill Country, then across much of South Central Texas late tonight. Large hail, damaging winds, and even some tornadoes will be possible. The most favorable conditions for severe weather will be west of Interstate 35. These storms will also be capable of producing heavy downpours of 1 to 2 inches.
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Update:

This update has been issued to increase the severe weather risk level to Enhanced over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande plains and western Hill Country. (Please see the graphic below). The Enhanced Risk area now covers the cities of Del Rio and Rocksprings.

Headline:

…Severe Storms Possible This Evening through Early Wednesday Morning…

Area of Concern:

All of South Central Texas, but primarily near the I-35 corridor west to the Rio Grande.

Threats & Impacts:

Winds:  Straight-line wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Hail:  Hail up to 2 inches in diameter

Tornadoes:  Isolated tornadoes possible.

Rainfall:  1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the Hill Country and Central Texas. 1/10 to 1 inch elsewhere.

Timing and Overview:

A storm system will bring a good chance of showers and storms to the region tonight. Conditions will be favorable for some storms to become severe, with the primary threats being damaging straight-line wind gusts and large hail. A lesser, but non-zero, threat for isolated tornadoes will exist. Some isolated pockets of heavy downpours are possible, however due to the speed of the system significant flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time.

We could see a few storms as early as late this afternoon across Val Verde and Edwards counties. However, most of the activity is expected late this evening and overnight. Initially, the storms are expected to organize into a line and first impact the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau between 9 and 11 PM. The line of storms will then move into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor between Midnight and 6 AM Wednesday morning. The storms will continue east of the I-35 corridor Wednesday morning, however some models indicate a weakening trend during that time.

Confidence:

Moderate to High

Additional Information Resources:

Request for Information:

Please relay severe weather reports and/or photo’s of severe weather to sr-ewx.alert@noaa.gov or via Twitter using #eWXspotter

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