Severe weather season is ramping up, and our first springtime storm system arrives in two days.
The First Warning Weather team will constantly be fine-tuning the expected timing and impacts from this storm. Stay tuned for frequent updates, especially if you’ll be attending the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play golf tournament, or Rodeo Austin events.
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First look at potential storm timing
10:30 a.m. Friday — Showers, isolated thunderstorms fire over the Hill Country with minimal risk of damaging storms.
1:30 p.m. Friday — Storms gather strength, enter the I-35 corridor. Minimal to slight risk of damaging storms.
4:00 p.m. Friday — Line of storms continues to fill in, with an increasing risk of damaging thunderstorms.
Hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes all appear possible at this time, though the greatest risk of damaging storms should stay in northeast Texas.
Interestingly, Austin’s three costliest hailstorms have all occurred on March 25. This Friday’s risk of severe weather comes on March 24.
Read the technical severe weather discussion from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center:
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS...ARKLATEX...OZARKS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Wind damage, isolated large hail and a tornado threat is forecast Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern Plains, Arklatex and Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday. At the surface, a low is forecast to move across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma as a dryline advances quickly eastward across the southern Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline are forecast to be in the lower 60s F in northeast Texas and in the upper 50s F in east-central Oklahoma. As surface heating takes place during the day across an uncapped moist sector, convective initiation appears likely just to the east of the dryline. This convection should gradually organize into a squall line being strongly forced by a band of large-scale ascent associated with the southern Plains upper-level low. The squall line is forecast to move across much of Arkansas and the western half of Louisiana during the evening eventually reaching the Mississippi River late in the period. Moisture advection will continue on Friday across the southern Plains and Arklatex as the upper-level system moves from west to east across the region. This should allow for moderate instability to develop by late afternoon across parts of eastern Oklahoma and east Texas. This combined with strong deep-layer shear profiles of 60 to 80 kt should result in a wind-producing MCS as the strong winds aloft congeal storms into a nearly continuous line. Wind damage will be possible along the leading edge of this convective line with the greatest potential in the Arklatex during the evening as the MCS gains access to higher quality moisture where surface dewpoints may reach the mid 60s F. In addition, forecast soundings across the Arklatex Friday evening show low-level shear profiles sufficient for tornadoes. Supercells that develop in the line or ahead of the line could be accompanied by a tornado threat. Isolated large hail may also occur with cells that rotate. An isolated wind damage and hail threat will be possible in much of the overnight period as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River.