Tropical development in the Caribbean likely this week

AUSTIN (KXAN) — For over a week, the KXAN First Warning Weather team has been monitoring the tropics, as two potential cyclones are developing.

The one closest to Texas is currently labelled “Disturbance 1” by the National Hurricane Center, and it has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying from Florida was scheduled to investigate this disturbance Sunday, but the flight has been rescheduled for Monday.

The disturbance is a large area of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula that is current creating disorganized showers and t-storms, along with gale force winds. There is no defined center of circulation, but as the system tracks northwest over the peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico in the next 12 hours, a cyclone is likely to form.

Right now, even if the cyclone doesn’t take shape, heavy rain is expected in Central America, parts of Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba over the next few days.

This cyclone, depending on its track, could affect Central Texas’ forecast in the latter half of this week. Our European model wants to take the track of the system to the Southeast, possibly land-falling in Louisiana on Wednesday and then moving northeast through Mississippi and Alabama on Thursday. It’s important to point out that not all models agree at this stage, and that there is a large difference between models at this time, as they are identifying different intensities and positions of the potential cyclone.

The forecast for Central Texas at this time remains dry. If the European model holds true, some of our eastern counties could get cooling rain before the start of next weekend.

“Disturbance 2,” farther out in the Atlantic, is already being upgraded to a potential tropical cyclone. A Tropical Storm Warning is issued in the Windward Islands of Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada on Sunday night. This system has sustained winds at 35 mph and is moving west at 23 mph.

Keep checking back with the First Warning Weather team for updates as these cyclones develop.

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