AUSTIN (KXAN) — A storm system over southern California will take direct aim on Texas this week, but may reverse course just as it reaches the state, making projected rainfall in Central Texas somewhat of a question mark.
Computer models suggest the large upper level low pressure system will make little progress eastward after reaching far western Texas, actually turning around and moving southwest, into northwestern Mexico.
The storm is large enough that it will still probably bring some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to parts of Central Texas late Thursday and Friday, but rain probabilities for the KXAN viewing area are currently only in the 40-50 percent range. The official rainfall projections keep the 4 to 5 inch bulls-eye of heavy rain about 180 miles west of Austin, while bringing much of the Austin area only .25″ to .75″. Amounts over one inch are possible over the Hill Country.
If the storm system follows the forecast track, mostly dry, pleasant weather should follow this weekend. The chance of rain Saturday is currently only 20 percent.
Get the forecast delivered to your inbox each morning
After causing massive damage to parts of the Bahamas and contributing to deadly flooding in South Carolina, Hurricane Joaquin is accelerating northeastward into the open Atlantic Ocean as a weakening category 1 hurricane.
October should be a transition month with El Niño conditions becoming more pronounced. As a result, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting above-average rainfall, and below-average temperatures for three month period October through December. In fact, the outlooks all the way through spring continue to forecast the same.
Make sure to download the popular, free KXAN Weather App on your smartphone to stay on top changing weather conditions.