AUSTIN (KXAN) — As quickly as a high pressure ridge moved in to create dry conditions after nearly two weeks of rain falling somewhere in Central Texas, it will move back northeast today, allowing some shower development in our area as early as Thursday afternoon.
As the high settles over the southeastern U.S. late this week, a tropical flow from the Gulf of Mexico will resume across Central Texas, bringing moisture and occasional rain-making disturbances over the next week or more. The showers and thunderstorms in the 7 day forecast are expected to remain fairly scattered, so projected rainfall totals across our area are only forecast to range from 1/4 to 3/4 inch over the next week.
The next tropical storm or hurricane in the Atlantic basin may be developing now near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. A tropical wave is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves northwest, possibly toward Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Some models indicate the system will become a hurricane before reaching Florida.
Austin’s official rainfall total has reached 6.58 inches at Camp Mabry, and 7.75 inches at ABIA this month. This has become the 6th wettest August on record at Camp Mabry in Austin, and 4th wettest at ABIA. The airport has received 44.32 inches of rain in 2016–22 inches above normal–the wettest year-to-date on record at ABIA.
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Our El Niño pattern has officially dissipated. It lasted for 15 months. Learn more here.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the potential for normal rainfall in Central Texas during the August-September-October months as we enter a neutral period (neither El Niño, nor La Niña). Temperatures will likely be above average during this time.
A rapid shift to La Niña conditions are possible by late summer and early fall. La Niña conditions would bring drier conditions to Central Texas. Temperatures will likely stay above average as drier than normal conditions persist from October through May 2017.